I figured it’s time to put up a ‘who’s on the roster’ post. The lads over at U.S.S. Mariner do this from time to time, and I find it pretty informative. I don’t pretend to have the breadth of statistical analysis expertise Dave Cameron has, but I like the way he presents the data. I have modified it for my own purposes.
I’ve used 2009 WAR values to project wins for the 2010 version. This is somewhat unconventional, as no one (other than Albert Pujols perhaps) is expected to exactly replicate their production from the previous year. New teams, new ballparks, new injuries, a year older, a year more seasoned, consistent playing time, and so on, all go into how a player will produce in 2010. However, I believe trying to project what most major league players will do this season is a lot like predicting the weather in San Diego.
- Weather: Look outside. 85% of the time tomorrow’s weather will be like today’s.
- Player predictions: Look at last year. This year’s production will be within 1 standard deviation of last year’s.
Also I’m using 50 wins as the ‘how many games would a team win if they only fielded replacement level players’ value. That’s based on comments in this fangraphs thread. If that’s the wrong number I’d appreciate someone pointing it out in the comments, and referring me to where I can find the actual number defined.
Here’s the chart:
Couple of things:
- I left third base blank because of the open competition I anticipate between Freese and Mather. It appears to be Freese’s job to lose, but he’s not assured of starting the season as the everyday third baseman.
- Using 2009 WAR starkly portrays how weak the Cardinal bench is right now. I haven’t advocated the club rush out and sign a Felipe Lopez-type, but they have a razor-thin margin of error should one of their starting position players get hurt.
- I put Kinney in the bullpen but that’s not assured.
- Isn’t it interesting how the most valuable starter in terms of WAR is also the lowest paid?
This team as currently projected should win 92 games. Also, 18 or 19 of the 25 roster slots are already spoken for as spring training starts. Adding in the starting third baseman (figure 2 WAR), the #5 starter (0.5 WAR), some bench pieces (probably 0.5 WAR for both players), and filling out the bullpen (again, probably 0.5 WAR total for those guys), maybe 95 wins optimally is this team’s ceiling.
I think we can reasonably project this team as good enough to get to the NLCS in October.
