AL All-Stars

Today we look at the American League All-Star Voting and select a team.  Once again, I’m basing my votes on Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  The WAR calculation takes into account player contributions both on offense and defense, which is why I like it.  So how are the voters doing?  Are they picking the best players, or are the most popular/well-known players ruling the day?  WAR leaders are based on Fangraphs data.

First Base. Vote Leader:  Justin Morneau.  WAR Leader:  Morneau.  Our Pick:  Justin Morneau.  Score one for the voting public.

Second Base. Vote Leader:  Robinson Cano.  WAR Leader:  Cano.  Our Pick:  Robinson Cano.  Two for Two.

Third Base.  Vote Leader:  Evan Longoria.  WAR Leader:  Adrian Beltre.  Our Pick:  Adrian Beltre.  I know, Longoria is having a good year, ultimately the All-Star game is about offense, and Beltre is only 0.2 WAR better than Longoria right now.  I have nothing against Longoria, I just like Beltre a little better.

Shortstop.  Vote Leader:  Derek Jeter.  WAR Leader:  Marco Scutaro.  Our Pick:  Alex Gonzalez.  There’s 0.7 WAR points between the top 6 shortstops in the AL.  Scutaro is all glove, Jeter is mostly bat, Gonzalez has a slightly better bat than Jeter does.  Really there’s no wrong answer here; Gonzalez, Scutaro, Jeter, Cliff Pennington are all deserving in my opinion.

Catcher.  Vote Leader:  Joe Mauer.  WAR Leader:  Mauer.  Our Pick:  Joe Mauer.  It’s close here between Mauer and Victor Martinez.  Both have suspect gloves; in fact, Mike Napoli may be the best all-around catcher in the AL (not as potent a stick, but a much better glove).  That said it’s very difficult to pick against the reigning AL MVP.

Outfield:  Vote Leaders:  Ichiro! (RF), Carl Crawford (LF), Josh Hamilton (LF).  WAR Leaders:  Crawford (LF), Alex Rios (CF), Shin-Soo Choo (RF).  Our Picks:  Carl Crawford (LF), Alex Rios (CF), Ben Zobrist (RF).  To me Crawford and Rios are slam dunks – both are far and away the best players at their respective positions in the AL.  Right field is a toss-up.  Choo has posted a 2.8 WAR campaign so far, Ichiro and Zobrist 2.7.  I’ve picked Zobrist simply because he had a great year last year, and is playing very well again this season.  His exclusion last year was a travesty.

Starting Pitcher:  WAR Leader:  Cliff Lee.  Our Pick:  Cliff Lee.  Think about this – Lee missed the first month of the season, and yet he’s been the most valuable starter in the AL anyway.   Wow.

I will not be picking a DH on general principle.  Take whichever overpaid-no-glove hitter you like.

How’s the voting public doing?  Four of the 8 vote leaders are the best players at their position based on WAR.  In two other instances (3B and SS), the player leading the votes is the second-best by WAR.  Looks like the fans are doing quite well picking the AL.

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