Why Dennys Reyes?

For some reason, at some level, I believe Trever Miller to be a better LOOGY than Dennys Reyes.  This might be colored by Miller’s ridiculous stranded runner rate in 2009, which has no bearing on performance in 2010.  That said, when Reyes entered last night’s game in the eighth to protect a 2-run lead, I shook my head.  One walk and a single later, the game was tied.  See?  Reyes was a bad call.  Or was he?

Let’s set aside the fact Reyes last pitched on Sunday, and Miller pitched Tuesday.  Miller went an inning, so ostensibly he still would have been available last night.

Looking at the numbers (which will include last night’s appearances, because it doesn’t change the conclusions) Miller has thrown 25.1 innings, Reyes 27.2 in 2010.  Reyes’ xFIP is almost a full run better than Miller’s (4.09 to 4.94).  Additionally, Reyes’ LOB% is better, although I would submit not statistically better (78.3% vice 75.3%), but still better.  So far the evidence screams Reyes was the right choice and I’m an idiot.  Which is certainly possible.

Let’s look at Runs Allowed vs Earned Runs before we consign me to the idiot pile.  Based on the Baseball Reference definitions (found under the ‘splits’ function on the player’s page), Runs Allowed “are credited to the pitcher in the game when the run scored”, and Earned Runs “are credited to the pitcher who was pitching when the scorer was at bat”.   Here you go:

  • Reyes:  26 Runs Allowed, 20 Earned Runs
  • Miller:  20 Runs Allowed, 21 Earned Runs

If I read that correctly, Reyes has allowed more inherited runners to score than Miller.  Which is interesting considering his LOB% is better; makes me wonder if that LOB% is for runners he lets reach base only or includes runners he inherits.  Since the whole point of being a high-leverage reliever is to leave those inherited runners right where they are – on the basepaths, as opposed to crossing the plate – it seems Miller should have thrown to Thole and Davis (Miller has never faced Ike Davis.  Thole is 0 for 1 against him).

Apologies for the Hiatus.  FY11 budget preparations have been more intensive than previous years, and were all-encompassing.

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1 Comment

Filed under analysis, Cardinals recap, LaRussa decision making

One response to “Why Dennys Reyes?

  1. I’d be interested to see if those numbers were significantly different if you took, say, April and May out of the equation, because I’m with you, Reyes coming into a ballgame always seems to be trouble, especially since he never seems to get the lefty out he is supposed to.

    Sometimes it’s a walk, he gets yanked, and someone else has to deal with the mess, but it still is a pain.

    ‘Course, Miller hasn’t been lights out either this year.

    Don’t have to worry about it today. Down 4-0 in the fifth with a knuckler on the mound and a get away day? Yeah, that’s not a good combo.

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